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Agile Computing: Blog Post

Web 2.0 Is Dead and Web 3.0 Is Five Years Away

New Media, Virtualization and Cloud Computing Will Flourish During this Recession

Do you remember our Y2K problem eight years ago? On January 1, 2000, all of a sudden, there was no Y2K problem. For many years every software company collectively made billions of dollars on Y2K projects. Y2K became an industry inside the software industry. I recall meeting a computer consultant who claimed to be fixing the Y2K problem on QuickBooks on a local PC used by a local mom and pop shop, a "hire a nurse" small business.

Unfortunately Web 2.0 was not so lucky.

Forget about the IBMs, Microsofts, Oracles of the industry for a moment that forayed into the Web 2.0 craze simply because of the buzz that started a couple of years ago. For the rest of the software vendors and the VC-based start-ups who bet their entire business on Web 2.0, the season is unfortunately over for now.

The new game is played a little differently now in the brave new World. IT departments around the world, small or large, have new priorities on their plate:

Cost Cutting!

I can't imagine a single company having a spare team of programmers sitting bored in a room today, with nothing better to do than implementing a "social computing" module to their corporate website, or my favorite, "enterprise mashups" for their management team.

Web 2.0 became a mute subject overnight as it relates to the "software business," almost like Y2K but for different reasons.

When you think about it, the entire Web 2.0 concept was a "no concept" to start with. We are not talking about "a new technology," we are not talking about "a new platform" or a "solution" to a business problem.

Bloggers do not need hundreds of Web 2.0 software companies to help them, neither did the kids who started MySpace, YouTube, or Facebook. As a matter of fact, not a single Website whose name is mentioned alongside the term Web 2.0 ever used any technology from a single Web 2.0 software vendor. We certainly didn't as we built Ulitzer.

Whose Web 2.0 software platform is the guy who launched Digg using? No one's. Why would K-Mart need social computing features on their website? Why would IBM need social computing elements on its website? Why would Sony need an enterprise mashup? Well, Zillow is a hit. Do we need to change every website on earth to mini Zillows?

As I said, companies, like the families and individuals of our times, are in survival mode now. They have a task at hand to cut costs, improve efficiencies, and survive the next five years.

K-Mart's IT department is trying to find a way to load those trucks more efficiently and the last thing people in Armonk are thinking about is when to launch IBM's very own corporate Web 2.0 site.

As far as the software industry goes, these tough economic days give the biggest business advantage to those companies who contribute directly to the solution of the big global problem and they will be the first to flourish as we dig ourselves from the ditch. Call that the new Y2K problem of our times, and it won't go away on a predetermined date, as the clocks hit midnight.

And on top of this list comes three recession curing technologies: SOA, Virtualization, and Cloud Computing.

Now, let's get back to work folks.

More Stories By Fuat Kircaali

Fuat Kircaali is the founder and chairman of SYS-CON Media, Cloud Expo, Inc. and Ulitzer, Inc.

Kircaali came to the United States from Zurich University, Switzerland in 1984 while studying for his PhD, to design computer systems for SH-2G submarine hunter helicopters for the U.S. Navy. He later worked at IBM's IS&CG Headquarters as a market research analyst under Mike Armstrong's leadership, an IBM executive who later ran IBM Europe and AT&T; and Fuat was the Director of Information Systems for UWCC, reporting to CEO Steve Silk (later Hebrew National CEO), one of the top marketing geniuses of the past two decades.

Kircaali founded SYS-CON Media in 1994, a privately held tech media company with sales exceeding $100 million. SYS-CON Media was listed twice by Inc 500 and Deloitte and Touche as one of the fastest-growing companies in North America. Kircaali launched Ulitzer, Inc., a revolutionary "new media" start-up in mid 2009.

Fuat completed Bogazici University Business Administration program in 1982 with a Bachelor's Degree. He was one of 50 students accepted to the program out of over 1 million high school graduates that year.

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Most Recent Comments
nni123 10/21/08 11:59:35 PM EDT

not sure how you come to the conclusion that web 2.0 is dead & I don't see the details to support that.

1. Adobe Flex
2. Google web tool kit
3. Microsoft silverlight
4. (they have SOA support)
5. ZK
6. Open source Lazalo

I mean top three are doing pretty well in that current market & people always need user interface for their website using web 1.0 or 2.0 or 3.0. So I am not sure how web 2.0 is dead or even close to that..

ndwalsh 10/21/08 01:18:04 PM EDT

wrong link - this one - to Jame's article.

ndwalsh 10/21/08 01:08:57 PM EDT

Hi Fuat,

Y2K was the biggest non-event event - but like us all, there was too much risk in ignoring it and looking back and saying if only....

I agree - there are interesting times ahead, I’m not sure Web 2.0 is dead yet - it could just pave the way through these turbulent times for us all. It's probably best to baseline what web 2.0 is - in the same way CRM is not a single technology its a number of methodologies, processes, a concept for care, service and interacting - all bought together and enabled by many CRM vendors.

In the same sense, Web 2.0 - simply describes - (quote from Wikipedia) "changing trends in the use of World Wide Web technology and web design that aims to enhance creativity, secure information sharing, collaboration and functionality of the web".

ultimately - whatever we call it - this is evolution and "recession curing technologies" are just fancy words for saying here’s something that’s evolved and got better Mr Customer, applying it to current business challenges and environements.

just my 2c...


PS - did you see also your colleagues post - - I think you must definitely have been speaking about K-Mart over coffee!

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