Oracle Keynote at Cloud Expo

Cloud Computing Expo - I hate to make new year's resolutions like a new diet program or another trainer at my local gym. I also usually never bother with annual predictions either, for that matter.

One exception to that personal rule is the long over due sale of TIBCO Software.

Since Oracle's bloody murder acquisition of BEA Systems, for the past two years there has been non-stop rumors that TIBCO would be next, of course which did not happen so far.

Oracle was named exclusive Diamond Sponsor of Cloud Expo 2010, which will take place April 19-21, at the Jacob Javits Convention Center in New York City. Cloud Expo, with over 5,000 delegates and more than 200 sponsors, will be the most significant technology event of the year.

Now that TIBCO's fourth quarter results are around the corner (on Tuesday after the closing bell), the rumors started to resurface again. The company is expected to beat the Street with an impressive margin in Q4 and close the year. (Red Hat and Progress Software are expected to impress the Street next week as well by the way.)

OK, last week The Motley Fool declared TIBCO the best stock of 2010.

StreetInsider wrote TIBCO Software (TIBX) was higher on renewed takeover talk.

One interesting take on why TIBCO is on the block came from a European company board member which was recently acquired by Software AG about a month ago.

In a ZDNet Asia interview, Wolfram Jost of IDS Scheer said:

"In the IT industry, size matters.

"For example, we all know that TIBCO is for sale. Why?

"Because I think they won't be able to survive with their current size. So smaller players need to be niche and have very specialized focus areas to survive in the market. It's not a question of technology but of global reach, size, customer base and investment power."

Back to my personal belief why TIBCO will be sold before the end of March 2010.

The company is in a better financial shape than ever, groomed for this long anticipated sale for several years now.

They cut all costs down to a minimum for the past couple of years to feed their bottom line, which shows handsomly.

TIBCO founder Vivek Ranadivé is not an idiot like Yahoo!'s Jerry Yang or BEA's Alfred Chuang.

IBM missed a big opportunity with Sun Microsystems and TIBCO for IBM could be a marriage made in heaven.

Same goes for SAP.

However, being a European outfit, SAP may not know how to act like a cowboy Larry Ellison in the wild wild west of Silicon Valley.

Ellison can put an offer on the table during a weekend breakfast at a corner Silicon Valley diner where he and his buddy Scott McNealy used to hang for many years. Our German friends may be busy with their due diligence, God knows, which may last more than a couple of years.

So here is my bet.

Oracle has enough of TIBCO's toys, Larry does not need to compete with himself. Count the Germans out, they don't know how to play the game.

TIBCO goes to IBM before the end of March 2010.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

• Oracle BEA - TIBCO Next?
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• Is Jerry Yang the Dumbest CEO in Silicon Valley?